We expect an increase in new private property launches in 2024, with approximately half of these launched units will be in the suburban areas. This is expected to spur housing demand, especially among HDB upgraders. With more project launches expected, we anticipate a moderate rise in new home sales. 

In the secondary market, the number of completions or private homes obtaining Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) is expected to decrease sharply from an estimated 19,050 units in 2023 (excluding executive condominiums or EC) to approximately 9,875 units in 2024. The suburban area (Outside of Central Region or OCR) will experience the biggest drop in supply from over 10,000 units in 2023 to around 1,800 units in 2024. 

As a result, sellers will continue to have the upper hand in the secondary market due to lower inventory levels. We expect resale prices to increase, especially for bigger units in the suburbs.

Even if developers stagger their launches or delay projects due to unforeseen circumstances, we still expect 23 launches yielding up to 8,800 units, 15.8 per cent higher than the approximate launch total of 7,600 units in 2023. Approximately half of the expected launched units will be in the OCR or the suburbs, 30 per cent in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) or city fringe, and close to 20 per cent in the prime Core Central Region (CCR). 

It is expected that between six to nine large projects with more than 500 units may be launched next year, causing sales to exceed 1,000 units for certain months. In comparison, there was only one large project launch in 2022 and four in 2021. 

The key project launches to watch include the 840-unit GLS site at Jalan Tembusu, the 775- unit GLS site at Lorong 1 Toa Payoh, the 533-unit GLS site at Lentor Gardens, the 512-unit Lumina Grand EC at Bukit Batok West Ave 5, the 475-unit GLS site at Lentor Central, the 440-unit SORA at Yuan Ching Road, and the 345-unit GLS site at Champions Way. 

Since around half of the launch units are in the suburbs, where prices tend to be lower than other market segments, we estimate that the overall prices of new homes may rise at a modest pace of 2 to 4 per cent in 2024. Around 6,500 to 7,500 new homes, excluding EC, could be sold next year, which will be on par with or slightly higher than the total new sales transactions in 2023.

Most of these new homes will be located in prime CCR, where approximately 4,100 units are expected to be completed. Slightly over 3,900 homes will be completed in the city fringe (RCR). Due to the completion of almost 16,000 new homes from 2022 to 2024, homeowners in the city fringe areas will face steeper competition for buyers. Similarly, the total new completions in CCR will be around 7,700 over the same period, which may exert some downward pressure on prices for the luxury segment. 

In contrast, the number of completions in the suburban OCR is expected to fall substantially from around 10,000 units in 2023 to approximately 1,800 units in 2024. As a result, resale prices may rise moderately in OCR, especially for larger units currently in high demand. 

Overall, resale prices are projected to rise by 3 to 5 per cent in 2024, and resale volume may slightly dip from the projected 10,000 to 12,000 units in 2023 to 9,000 to 11,000 units in 2024. 

Looking ahead, the property market is likely to benefit from an improving economy and labour market conditions. Singapore's economy is projected to pick up pace in 2024, with growth rate to come in between 1 and 3 per cent, supported by the ongoing recovery in travel, tourism, and global electronics demand. Moreover, the downturn in the manufacturing and trade-related industries could be ending, which will spur employment prospects. Interest rates are also projected to cease their surge globally. 

The property market is expected to remain stable in view of the prevailing property curbs and buyer prudence amid cost concerns. The increased supply of condos has helped to stabilize prices in 2023, and we expect market stability to continue into 2024. 

The private home prices for the entire market may moderately increase by 3 to 6 per cent in 2024, which is almost on a par with the projected 4 to 5.5 per cent growth for the full year in 2023. Next year’s growth will also be substantially lower than the growth rates of 8.6 per cent in 2022 and 10.6 per cent in 2021. 

Since a decrease in private home completions will lead to fewer homes available for resale, total sales volume may decline slightly from the projected 17,500 to 19,500 units in 2023 to 16,000 to 19,000 units in 2024.