Resale prices continued to rise in the final quarter of 2024, particularly in suburban and prime areas, where growth was notably faster. However, the number of resale transactions decreased as consumer demand shifted toward the primary market, which saw an increase in new project launches.

 PRICE TREND

In the fourth quarter of 2024, private resale home prices rose further, even though the number of resale homes sold declined compared to the previous quarter. According to data from Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) Realis, the average resale prices for both landed and non-landed private homes, excluding executive condos (EC), rose by 2 per cent, from S$1,712 per square foot (psf) in Q3 2024 to S$1,747 psf in Q4 2024 (Chart 1).

For the entire year of 2024, resale prices grew by 5.1 per cent, which was slower than the 7.5 per cent in 2023 and 8.7 per cent in 2022.

Price gains were observed across all market segments. The average resale prices in the suburban Outside Central Region (OCR) grew the most by 2.4 per cent from S$1,490 psf in the preceding quarter to S$1,525 psf in Q4 2024 (Chart 2), reversing from the 0.3 per cent decrease in Q3 2024. Likewise, the average resale prices in CCR rose by 1.7 per cent from S$2,178 psf in Q3 2024 to S$2,215 psf in Q3 2024, slightly faster than the 1.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) growth in Q3 2024. The average resale prices in RCR have also seen an increase, rising marginally by 0.1 per cent from S$1,867 psf to S$1,868 psf during the same period, which was slower than the 1.6 per cent q-o-q growth in the preceding quarter. 

RESALE VOLUME

Private resale volume fell in Q4 2024 as many buyers shifted to the primary market amidst a ramp-up of new project launches. Based on quarterly data released by the URA, 3,702 private resale homes, excluding EC, were sold in Q4 2024, dropping by 4.1 per cent from 3,860 units in the preceding quarter (Chart 3). 

In terms of market share, resale transactions constituted 49.8 per cent of the total 7,433 units (including new sales, resale, and subsale) sold in Q4 2024, down from 71.9 per cent in Q3 2024 and 77.4 per cent in Q2 2024.

For the whole year of 2024, a total of 14,053 resale homes were sold, a 24 per cent increase from the 11,329 resale units that were transacted in 2023. The market share relative to the total private home transactions for this year surged to 64 per cent, a noticeable improvement from 59.5 per cent in 2023. 

The growing demand for resale homes could be attributed to limited supply of large projects in the primary market in 1H 2024, as well as substantial increase in housing supply for the resale market, with close to 30,000 private homes reaching completion in 2022 and 2023. With the expanding inventory of residential units available for resale, prospective purchasers will have more housing options to choose from. Moreover, despite the narrowing price gap between new and resale private homes, price-sensitive buyers are still likely to opt for lower-cost options in the resale market, especially if they need a home quickly.

Outlook

With the lower interest rates and a strengthening economy driven by job growth, demand for resale homes in the private residential market is likely to remain strong. Some investors may be inclined to take advantage of the favourable credit conditions to increase their property investment portfolios. 

Therefore, demand may exceed supply in 2025, as the inventory available for purchase will continue to decline this year as fewer private homes will be completed. The number of private home completions or homes obtaining their Temporary Occupation Period (TOP), excluding ECs, is projected to decrease from 8,460 units in 2024 to 5,846 units in the present year, which translates to an expected decrease of 30.9 per cent. 

As the limited supply of private home completions may lead to a dip in the number of private residential units available for sale in the resale market, overall resale transactions could drop to around 10,000 to 12,000 units in 2025, down from the 14,053 transactions in 2024.

Due to the projected decrease in available stock for purchase to meet demand, there is also strong likelihood that resale prices will experience robust growth this year. Therefore, we anticipate that resale prices may rise by 4 to 7 per cent in 2025.