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Press Release

24 Jan 2025

HDB has just released the Q4 2024 public housing data.

https://www.hdb.gov.sg/about-us/news-and-publications/press-releases/Upcoming-Flat-Supply-And-4th-Quarter-2024-Public-Housing-Data

HDB Resale Price Index

Prices of resale flats sustained their upward momentum in the fourth quarter of 2024, albeit at a slower pace. According to public housing statistics released by the Housing and Development Board (HDB), resale prices increased by 2.6 per cent during the last quarter, a slight decline from the 2.7 per cent growth recorded in the preceding quarter.

For the whole of 2024, resale prices grew by 9.7 per cent, faster than the 4.9 per cent growth in 2023 but slower than the increments of 10.4 per cent in 2022 and 12.7 per cent in 2021.

Last quarter’s price growth may be affected by a decline in resale demand. Some buyers shifted to the primary market as over 8,500 flats were launched for sale under the Build-To-Order (BTO) exercise in October. Many buyers, especially first-time homeowners, were likely attracted to the newly categorized Prime and Plus flats, which are located in desirable areas. Moreover, eligible buyers might be enticed by the affordability and shorter waiting times of some of the new Standard flats. As a result, the demand for resale flats momentarily softened, leading to slower price growth in Q4 2024.

Price Growth Streak

HDB resale prices are on track to achieve their longest growth streak in 2025. After a price increase of 2.6 per cent in Q4 2024, this marks the 19th consecutive quarterly rise since Q1 2020. This is the second longest period of price growth, following the 20 consecutive quarters of increases seen from Q4 1991 to Q4 1996.

However, the current price growth, while noticeable, pales in comparison to the more dramatic spikes observed in the 1990s. As a result, the cumulative price growth that started in 2020 is not the highest compared to previous periods. The cumulative price increase over the 19 quarters was 50.3 per cent from Q1 2020 to Q4 2024, averaging approximately 2.6 per cent per quarter. In contrast, from Q4 1991 to Q4 1996, prices surged by 294.4 per cent over 20 quarters, resulting in an average increase of about 14.7 per cent per quarter. The smaller cumulated price growth seen in 2020 can be largely attributed to various cooling measures that have been introduced in recent years to curb rapid price increases.

Prices by flat types and towns

A slower price growth could be observed across many flat types. Based on caveat data from data.gov.sg, the price growth of 4-room, 3-room, 2-room and executive flats slowed from 3.5 to 2.2 per cent, 2.8 to 1.8 per cent, 3 to 2.2 per cent, and 2.3 to 0.1 per cent, respectively from Q3 2024 to Q4 2024. Conversely, the average resale prices of 5-room and 1-room flats grew faster by 2.7 per cent and 7.6 per cent over the same period.

Prices in 20 out of 26 towns increased last quarter, a similar trend to the 19 towns observed in Q3 2024. The most substantial increases were seen in the Central Area (25.6 per cent), followed by Toa Payoh (12.1 per cent), Tampines (6.9 per cent), Bishan (6.7 per cent), and Bedok (6.1 per cent).

Resale Volume

Fewer resale flats were sold last quarter. According to HDB quarter statistics, 6,424 resale units were sold in Q4 2024, a 21.1 per cent dip from the 8,142 units sold in Q3 2024. This is the lowest quarterly sales recorded since 3,426 units in Q2 2020. Year-on-year, resale volume fell 1.9 per cent from 6,547 units in Q4 2023.

In 2024, 28,986 resale flats were sold, which was higher than the 26,735 units in 2023 and 27,896 units in 2022 but lower than the 31,017 units in 2021. The recent BTO launch exercise likely contributed to the decrease in resale volume last quarter. Moreover, sales are typically slower during the year-end as families tend to travel during the school holidays. This would result in a dip in house viewings and sales activity during this period.

Last quarter, fewer large flats were transacted. Data indicates that the transaction volume for 5-room and executive resale flats fell by 22.2 per cent, dropping from 2,392 units in Q3 2024 to 1,862 units in Q4 2024. However, demand for larger flats was higher on a yearly basis. A total of 8,468 5-room and executive flats were sold in 2024, 11.5 per cent more than the 7,597 flats transacted in 2023. This indicates that there is still robust demand for large flats generally, which may be driven by down graders of private homes or HDB owners upgrading to bigger resale flats.

Rental

The HDB public housing data for Q4 2024 showed a decrease of 5.6 per cent in approved applications to rent out HDB flats, from 9,118 units in Q3 2024 to 8,603 units in Q4 2024. Year-on-year, Q4's rental applications were also 12.1 per cent lower when compared to the 9,787 units in Q4 2023.

The lower rental volume is within expectation since rental activities usually taper off during the year-end holidays. Moreover, some demand may have shifted to the private market as rents have grown more competitive and attractive in the private market. The decrease in flats obtaining their five-year Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in recent years may also be a contributing factor since the available housing inventory for lease has also decreased.

Outlook

HDB resale prices may continue to grow this year due to the limited supply of MOP flats. The number of flats obtaining their five-year MOP is projected to fall for a third consecutive year from 30,920 units in 2022 to 6,974 units in 2025. This is the lowest MOP number in 11 years, with the previous low occurring in 2014 with 5,301 units.

However, a big surge in resale prices is unlikely since more BTO flats will be launched for sale. The government has announced plans to launch more than 50,000 new flats between 2025 and 2027. This addition will raise their target for new launches from 100,000 between 2021 and 2025 to approximately 102,300 flats.

Moreover, efforts to reduce the waiting times for BTO flats to under three years may encourage more potential buyers to purchase BTO flats, which would divert more demand away from the resale market.

Considering these factors, we anticipate HDB resale prices to increase by 4 to 6 per cent, with sales reaching between 25,000 and 27,000 units.

Press Release

by OrangeTee & Tie Pte Ltd.

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HDB Quarterly Data