Prices
The HDB resale market gained momentum, registering a 2.5 per cent increase from July to September, outpacing the 2.3 per cent upturn observed in the second quarter of 2024. Buyers could be paying more due to the reduced housing supply, stemming from fewer new flats meeting the minimum occupation period (MOP) in recent years.
Flash estimates released by HDB showed that this was the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2022, when prices rose by 2.6 per cent. For the first three quarters of this year, prices rose by 6.8 per cent, which is higher than the 3.8 per cent growth registered over the same period in 2023 but slower than the 8 per cent increase over the same period in 2022.
By flat type, 4-room flats grew 3.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter in Q3, followed by 3-room flats at 2.8 per cent, 2-room flats at 2.9 per cent, executive flats at 2.4 per cent and 5-room flats at 1.5 per cent, according to caveat data from data.gov.sg at 8.15 am.
Despite the price acceleration, resale volume increased to 8,035 units in Q3 (up to 29 September), up 20 per cent from 6,695 units over the same period. The increased demand could be driven by more people upgrading within the same housing segment, from smaller resale flats to larger ones, as private property prices remain elevated. More private home downgraders may have also opted to buy HDB resale flats for their affordability.
Due to the decreasing supply of new MOP flats and more private home downgraders fulling their 15-month wait-out period, more flats were transacted at higher price tags, including a million dollars. In the third quarter of this year, a record 328 HDB resale flats were sold for a million dollars, up from 236 units in the preceding quarter and 128 units in Q3 2023.
In the first three quarters of this year, there were 747 million-dollar flats, which surpassed the full-year record of 469 units in 2023. Given the sales momentum, the number of million-dollar flat transactions could be on track to double the number inked last year.
Market Outlook
Resale volume may drop slightly in the final quarter of this year as sales activities usually taper down during the year-end holidays, and some buyers may be drawn to the October BTO sales exercise, where many flats in good locations will be launched for sale.
Given the limited supply of new HDB flats, more units may be sold at high prices. Further, resale flats near the future Prime Location Housing (PLH) and Plus flat sites could also fetch higher prices, as some buyers may prefer resale units that come with shorter Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) and less stringent selling criteria when compared to new Plus or Prime flats.
Should prices persist at elevated levels, it is imperative for prospective home buyers to exercise prudence and avoid overpaying. The prevailing trends indicate that many buyers are paying a premium for flats situated on lower floors, smaller units or flats located farther from the city centre.
Notably, over the past two years, there has been a discernible uptick in the market share of million-dollar flats located in non-mature estates, climbing from 4.3 per cent (12 units) from January to September 2022 to 9.1 per cent (68 units) during the same period in 2024. Furthermore, the proportion of 4-room million-dollar flats has experienced a substantial surge, escalating from 9 per cent (25 units) to 33.9 per cent (253 units) over the same period. Similarly, the proportion of lower-floor million-dollar flats at 12 storeys or lower has also increased from 34.7 per cent (96 units) to 42.2 per cent (315 units). Therefore, it is possible that some buyers may have overpaid for their flats, and buyers should remain prudent in their purchase.