Singapore, 26 Jan 2024 HDB has just released the Q4 2023 public housing data.
https://www.hdb.gov.sg/about-us/news-and-publications/press-releases/Upcoming-Flat-Supply-and-4th-Quarter-2023-Public-Housing-Data
HDB Resale Price Index
HDB resale prices grew at a slower pace last quarter as demand was relatively subdued. According to data released by HDB, resale prices rose for the 15th quarter in a row by 1.1 per cent, compared to 1.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2023.
Based on HDB data from data.gov.sg downloaded at 8am on 26 January 2024, average prices slipped in 12 towns in Q4, compared to just 10 towns in the preceding quarter. On the other hand, average prices in Q4 grew in 14 towns, which is down from 16 towns in Q3. Last quarter's price gains were mostly less than 2 per cent. By flat type, the highest price gain was for 4-room flats, which grew by just 0.7 per cent in Q4, followed by 3- and 5-room flats at 0.6 per cent. Executive flats rose by a marginal 0.3 per cent, while 2-room flats increased by 0.1 per cent.
For the entire year, prices grew by 4.9 per cent in 2023, significantly less than the 10.4 per cent price gain in 2022 and the 12.7 per cent increase in 2021. 2023's price growth was the slowest since 2019, when prices grew by just 0.1 per cent. Last year's price has slowed owing to a contraction in housing demand, inflationary concerns and higher interest rates.
Resale Volume
Based on HDB data, resale volume decreased by 2.2 per cent from 6,695 units in Q3 2023 to 6,547 units in Q4 2023. For the whole year, a total of 26,735 resale flats were transacted, which was 4.2 per cent lower than the 27,896 units sold in 2022. This was the lowest annual sales since 24,748 units were transacted in 2020.
Owing to the large number of BTO flats launched in Q4, more Singaporeans have turned to the primary market to purchase an HDB flat. Consequently, fewer sales were observed in the HDB resale market last quarter.
Asset progression has also become harder with the property cooling measures and high replacement cost of a new home, resulting in fewer flat owners selling their flats and upgrading to private homes.
Rental
According to HDB public housing data for Q4 2023, the approved applications to rent out HDB flats dipped by 0.7 per cent from 9,852 units in Q3 2023 to 9,787 units in Q4 2023.
Rental supply is expected to dwindle further, with MOP flats slipping from 15,549 units in 2023 to 11,952 units in 2024. Further, rental inventory may shrink since the rise in the ABSD for buyers holding multiple properties will continue to discourage homeowners from keeping their flats for rental income. On the demand side, local tenants may continue to shrink while others may shift back to the private market should private rents moderate. Rental prices are projected to stabilize with a minor increase of 1 to 3 per cent amid a tighter housing market.
Outlook
Sellers will continue to face intense competition for buyers this year. An additional 37,000 flats may be launched by the government these three years to meet the target supply of up to 100,000 flats from 2021 to 2025, and this may cause some demand to shift away from the resale market. Over 63,000 Build-To-Order (BTO) flats have already been launched from 2021 to 2023. As MOP flats slip, the dwindling stock will help prop up prices in some locations and prevent a steep price correction.
We estimate that resale prices are expected to rise modestly by 3 to 5 per cent in 2024, comparable to or slightly lower than the 4.8 per cent increase in 2023.