Prices
The public housing market continued to gain momentum in the second quarter of this year, with stronger sales and positive price growth. According to flash estimates from the Housing Development Board (HDB), resale prices increased by 2.1 per cent in Q2, marking the 17th consecutive quarter of price growth. This growth rate was faster than the 1.8 per cent increase seen in the previous quarter and the fastest since Q4 2022, at a 2.3 per cent increase.
Resale prices grew 6.5 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2024. In the first half of this year, prices grew by 4 per cent, surpassing the 2.5 per cent growth seen in the first half of 2023 but slower than the 5.3 per cent growth in the first half of 2022.
Reasons behind the positive price growth
The current market outlook for the public housing sector is undeniably positive, underpinned by Singapore’s economic growth and improved hiring landscape, which have bolstered consumer confidence.
Demand for resale flats surged in the second quarter of this year, following a reduction in the frequency of Build-to-Order (BTO) sales launches from four to three times a year and the Sales of Balance Flat (SBF) exercise being limited to once a year. Furthermore, the increased housing grants for eligible homebuyers rendered resale flats to be more accessible and affordable for many homebuyers, particularly young couples.
We have also noticed a growing number of private property homeowners returning to the resale market after completing the mandatory 15-month wait-out period, which was implemented in September 2022 for those who want to downgrade to a resale flat. This may have contributed to an increase in demand for flats, especially larger units.
Areas of price growth
Based on data from HDB caveats on data.gov.sg downloaded today at 8.30 am, there was an acceleration in price growth for certain types of flats. For example, the median resale price of 5-room flats increased by 2.2 per cent in Q2 2024, faster than the 2 per cent growth in Q1 2024. Similarly, the prices of 3-room flats went up by 2.5 per cent in Q2, compared to 1.3 per cent in Q1. Meanwhile, price growth for 4-room and 2-room flats remained steady at 1.8 per cent and 1.3 per cent respectively.
Outlook
Consumer confidence and buying sentiment are expected to remain positive as Singapore's economy and hiring prospects are projected to improve further in the second half of this year. However, the interest rate environment remains uncertain in the near term.
Competition for buyers may stiffen as the government plans to release more flats in good locations in October. Some buyers may be attracted to the exceptional locations, particularly the new flats in Bayshore, Geylang, Woodlands, and Pasir Ris, which are in proximity to an MRT station. Nevertheless, certain resale flats in the vicinity may still benefit from the upcoming BTO sales launch due to the heightened awareness of the area and potential increase in amenities when these new flats are completed. Moreover, buyers purchasing resale flats in the same locations continue to enjoy a shorter 5-year MOP.
As price growth is on target, we maintain our earlier price projections, with an expected increase of up to 5 per cent this year.